The article highlights how investors can use the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) filter to identify stocks likely to beat earnings expectations. It features Phillips 66 with a +13.53% ESP and Strong Buy rating ahead of October 28 earnings, and Sunrun with a +195.17% ESP and Hold rating before November 4 earnings, both showing strong potential for positive earnings surprises.

Sunrun (RUN) gained 2.64% to close at $7.79, outperforming the broader market decline. The solar energy company is expected to report earnings on November 4, 2026, with projected EPS of $0.12 (up 100% YoY) and quarterly revenue of $795.86 million (up 9.84% YoY). However, the stock carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) rating with EPS estimates revised 2.28% lower over the past 30 days. The Solar industry ranks in the bottom 14% of all industries.

The article highlights two energy stocks with positive Earnings Surprise Prediction (ESP) metrics that may outperform earnings expectations: Sunrun with a +170.72% ESP ahead of November 4 earnings, and First Solar with a +3.47% ESP before October 29 earnings. Both stocks hold #3 (Hold) Zacks Rank ratings. The article explains how combining positive ESP with Zacks Rank #3 or better has historically produced 28.3% annual returns.

Sunrun (RUN) closed at $7.77, up 2.1% for the day, outperforming the S&P 500. However, the stock has declined 14.4% over the past month. While the company is expected to report strong quarterly EPS growth of 166.67% and revenue growth of 6.74%, full-year earnings are projected to decline 30.41%. Sunrun holds a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell) with a Forward P/E of 6.41, trading at a discount to its industry average. The Solar industry ranks 222nd out of 250+ industries.

Sunrun (RUN) closed at $7.64, down 1.67% in the latest session, underperforming the S&P 500. The solar energy company is expected to report earnings of $0.16 per share with 166.67% year-over-year growth, though annual earnings are projected to decline 30.41%. Trading at a Forward P/E of 6.55, well below its industry average of 13.31, Sunrun holds a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold). The Solar industry ranks 212 out of 250 industries, placing it in the bottom 14%.

Sunrun co-founder Lynn Jurich sold 50,000 shares worth approximately $796,000 on June 1, 2026, as part of a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted in June 2025. The sale continues a multi-year pattern of systematic stock dispositions and does not signal insider concern. While Sunrun shares have declined from their 52-week high of $22.44, the company reported strong Q1 revenue growth of 43% year-over-year to $722.2 million, though it continues managing a substantial $14 billion debt load.

Sunrun priced its sixteenth securitization since 2015, raising $584 million through Class A and Class B notes backed by 38,706 solar and storage systems. The securitization achieved improved credit spreads of 220 basis points, a 20 basis point improvement from prior 2025 transactions, demonstrating strong market demand for the company's renewable energy assets.

Sunrun stock fell nearly 7% this week after JPMorgan analyst Mark Strouse cut his price target from $25 to $22 per share, though he maintained a buy rating. The solar sector has fallen out of favor as investor attention shifts to other energy segments like nuclear and oil, despite the analyst's bullish outlook on clean energy catalysts.

Ardsley Advisory Partners LP sold 440,000 shares of Hut 8 (55% of its position) worth $19.4 million in Q4 2025, likely taking profits after the stock surged 163% over the past year from April lows near $10 to above $50. Despite strong 45% revenue growth, the company's expensive 26x price-to-sales ratio and net losses may have prompted the fund's exit.

The U.S. solar energy and battery storage market is projected to grow from USD 2.71 billion in 2025 to USD 11.64 billion by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of 15.70%. Growth is driven by federal incentives, declining technology costs, and increasing demand for clean energy. Lithium-ion batteries dominate with 68.40% market share, while Asia Pacific leads globally with 41.06% revenue share. Commercial applications currently lead, but residential is the fastest-growing segment.

Sunrun installed 1.5 GWh of residential battery storage in 2025, representing approximately 48% of the 3.1 GWh total U.S. residential energy storage market. The company now operates over 237,000 storage and solar systems with 4.0 GWh of networked storage capacity, equivalent to 44% of all residential energy storage installed in the U.S. since inception. Sunrun's battery fleet dispatched 18 GWh to support grids in 2025 and achieved a record 71% storage attachment rate in Q4 2025.

Pomerantz LLP is investigating potential securities fraud claims against Sunrun Inc. after the company reported a 30% decrease in net subscriber value on February 26, 2026, citing higher funding costs, tariff-related inflation, and lower subscriber additions. The company also guided to negative growth in 2026, prompting a 35.11% stock price decline to $13.25 per share on February 27, 2026.