Moderna faces a transition period as it shifts from pandemic-era coronavirus vaccine dominance to building a seasonal vaccine franchise and expanding into oncology and rare diseases. While the company recently received FDA approval to review its flu vaccine candidate after an initial rejection, it continues to navigate declining vaccine sales and reduced government funding. The stock surged 50% in January on turnaround optimism, and the company expects seasonal vaccine growth to drive cash breakeven by 2028.

Ten large-cap stocks were top performers last week, with First Majestic Silver leading gains at 25.23% following better-than-expected Q4 results. Other notable gainers include Moderna (19.68%) on FDA seasonal flu vaccine review news, Global Payments (19.52%) with strong Q4 earnings and a $2.6B buyback authorization, and Coinbase (11.32%). Companies like Omnicom, Garmin, Figma, and Pan American Silver also reported strong quarterly results and positive guidance.

Billionaire Philippe Laffont, founder of Coatue Management, sold his entire CoreWeave position in Q4 2025 after gaining approximately 80% returns since the company's IPO in March 2025. Simultaneously, he opened a small position in Moderna by purchasing 200,000 shares. Moderna stock surged nearly 50% in January 2026 as the biotech company pivots toward long-term growth through its respiratory vaccine franchise and pipeline candidates in oncology and rare diseases.

BioNTech has filed a patent infringement lawsuit against Moderna, alleging that Moderna's next-generation COVID-19 vaccine mNEXSPIKE infringes on BioNTech's patented domain-based spike protein technology. BioNTech claims the technology targets specific domains of the spike protein rather than the full structure, enabling lower doses and improved storage stability. Moderna has not sought licensing rights or provided compensation, according to BioNTech. The lawsuit seeks monetary damages as Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine sales reached $1.168 billion through Q3 2025.

Recent stock market declines have created buying opportunities in three AI and biotech leaders. Nvidia remains a dominant force in AI chips with strong profitability and annual chip updates planned. Moderna, despite recent setbacks in vaccine funding and regulatory challenges, has a promising pipeline of cancer and rare disease candidates. Amazon's AWS cloud business is capitalizing on soaring AI demand with strong monetization of new capacity.

Markets finished in the green on Feb. 18, 2026, with the S&P 500 rising 0.56%, Nasdaq gaining 0.78%, and the Dow adding 0.26%. Nvidia led gains following a chip partnership announcement with Meta for data center technology, boosting AI infrastructure confidence. Other gainers included Palantir Technologies, Snap, and Moderna, while energy stocks advanced amid geopolitical uncertainty.

The FDA has reversed its previous refusal-to-file decision and accepted Moderna's biologics license application for mRNA-1010, an mRNA-based flu vaccine for adults 50 and older, with an August 5 PDUFA goal date. The stock surged 5.77% on the news. Moderna also beat Q4 earnings expectations with a smaller loss and higher-than-expected revenue of $678 million.

January inflation cooled to 2.4% annually, below expectations of 2.5%, marking the lowest reading since May 2025. Core inflation also declined to 2.5%, reinforcing easing price pressures. Growth-sensitive stocks rallied on expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates later this year.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals is highlighted as a biotech success story with strong leadership in cystic fibrosis treatment and successful expansion into other areas like gene editing and pain management. The author recommends buying and holding the stock long-term, citing Vertex's secured IP leadership through the late 2030s, billion-dollar CF earnings, and continued innovation including new drug candidates like Alyftrek that outperform existing blockbusters.

Moderna signed a long-term strategic agreement with the Mexican government to enhance local mRNA manufacturing capabilities, including technology transfer to Laboratorios Liomont for COVID-19 vaccine production and supply of up to 10 million doses for 2025-2026. The stock shows mixed momentum with neutral RSI but bearish MACD signals ahead of February 13 earnings.

Moderna's stock has surged 39% in 2026 driven by clinical progress with its mRNA-4157 cancer vaccine candidate and the submission of its flu vaccine mRNA-1010 for regulatory approval. However, the company faces headwinds in its core coronavirus vaccine market, with 2025 revenue expected between $1.6-2 billion versus $3.2 billion in 2024. The analyst suggests buying only for long-term investors, as the upcoming Feb. 13 earnings report likely won't surprise, but the deep pipeline offers potential for future growth.

The global human vaccines market is projected to grow from USD 44.26 billion in 2025 to USD 62.45 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 4.43%. Growth is driven by expanding immunization programs, technological advancements in mRNA and recombinant vaccines, and increased public health investments. mRNA vaccines and HPV vaccines are expected to grow fastest, while challenges include manufacturing complexity and regulatory compliance.