The GEO Group, Inc. · Industrials · Security & Protection Services
Scores & Status Key
AI Summary Scores: Intraday / Swing / Long scores are synthesized from multi-factor analysis for each timeframe. They summarize current conditions discussed in the report and do not constitute trading recommendations.
Intraday Trend Score: A 0–100 composite from the Trend Explorer™ analytics engine used for ranking and comparison. It describes current conditions and is not a forecast.
Trend Status: A rules-based label (Bullish / Mixed / Bearish) derived from signal confluence (trend structure, momentum, and positioning). It indicates alignment, not expected return.
Last
$15.05
+$0.52 (+3.54%) 4:00 PM ET
After hours$15.19
+$0.14 (+0.96%) 5:50 AM ET
Prev closePrevC$14.53
OpenOpen$14.33
Day highHigh$15.13
Day lowLow$14.14
VolumeVol2,847,067
Avg volAvgVol2,435,617
On chart
Interval
Intervals apply to 1D & 5D.
Intervals apply to 1D & 5D.
Scale: Linear
Overlays
Panels
Style
Scale: Linear
Presets
Tools
Tickers only (no ^ indexes). Add up to 5.
Mkt cap
$2.09B
P/E ratio
8.80
FY Revenue
$2.53B
EPS
1.71
Gross Margin
100.00%
Sector
Industrials
AI report sections
BULLISH
GEO
The GEO Group, Inc.
The GEO Group, Inc. shows short-term technical momentum with price above key moving averages and multiple bullish pattern signals, even as the share price remains well below its 52-week high. Fundamentally, revenue growth is modest but earnings growth and margins have improved, while free cash flow remains thin and leverage is elevated. Short interest is meaningful but not extreme, and recent news flow mixes cost and guidance pressures with contract wins and improved outlook commentary.
AI summarized at 3:06 PM ET, 2026-01-10
AI summary scores
INTRADAY:68SWING:57LONG:52
Volume vs average
Intraday (cumulative)
+8% (Above avg)
Vol/Avg: 1.08×
RSI
44.64(Neutral)
Neutral (40–60)
0255075100
MACD momentum
Intraday
-0.02 (Weak)
MACD: -0.01 Signal: 0.01
Short-Term
-0.03 (Weak)
MACD: -0.65 Signal: -0.61
Long-Term
-0.14 (Weak)
MACD: -0.75 Signal: -0.61
Intraday trend score
62.65
LOW49.65HIGH62.65
Latest news
GEO•12 articles•Positive: 6Neutral: 0Negative: 3
NegativeThe Motley Fool• Jonathan Ponciano
GEO Stock Down 40%, and One Major Investor Just Cut $6.7 Million From Its Stake
Hodges Capital Management sold 401,146 shares of The GEO Group (GEO) worth approximately $6.7 million in Q4 2025. GEO stock has declined over 40% in the past year amid controversy surrounding Trump's immigration policies, despite strong earnings rebound and expanded ICE contracts. The company posted solid Q4 results with improved EBITDA and positive 2026 guidance, but faces ongoing political and leverage risks.
Stock down 40% over the past year significantly underperforming S&P 500. Major investor reducing position by $6.7 million amid political controversy over immigration policies. While fundamentals show earnings improvement and contract expansion, the stock decline and investor exit signal market concerns about policy risk and valuation despite operational progress.
NegativeBenzinga• Lekha Gupta
GEO Missed Q1 Targets On Rising Costs And Debt, Guides Q2 Below Street Estimates
GEO Group reported Q1 revenue and adjusted EPS that missed analyst expectations, with adjusted EBITDA also declining. However, the company raised its full-year EPS and revenue outlook, anticipating growth in the second half of 2025.
GEOBOUTMGMTGEO GroupQ1 earningsdebtguidance
Sentiment note
The company missed Q1 targets on rising costs and debt, and provided Q2 guidance below street estimates.
NegativeBenzinga• Lekha Gupta
GEO Q4 Earnings: Sales Beat, EPS Miss, New Immigration Contract And More
The GEO Group reported Q4 revenue beating estimates, but EPS fell short due to higher expenses. The company secured a new $1 billion contract with ICE and provided a FY25 outlook with lower EPS and revenue guidance compared to consensus.
The company reported a Q4 EPS miss and provided a weaker-than-expected FY25 outlook, indicating challenges in its business performance.
PositiveThe Motley Fool• Geoffrey Seiler
Have $500? 3 Absurdly Cheap Stocks Long-Term Investors Should Buy Right Now
The article discusses three undervalued stocks: Sirius XM Holdings, Geo Group, and e.l.f. Beauty. Sirius XM is seen as attractively valued with opportunities in its satellite radio and Pandora businesses. Geo Group is expected to benefit from increased funding for its electronic monitoring program for immigrants. e.l.f. Beauty is a fast-growing cosmetics company trading at a reasonable valuation.
The article believes Geo Group is well-positioned to benefit from increased funding for its electronic monitoring program for immigrants, which is expected under the new political landscape.
PositiveBenzinga• Anthony Noto
Deal Dispatch: Prison Companies In Focus Post-Election, Tripadvisor Boasts $11B In Cash
Wellpath Holdings, a major provider of healthcare services to jails, is preparing to file for bankruptcy. Prison stocks Geo Group and CoreCivic moved positively on the news of Donald Trump's 2024 election win. Tripadvisor is exploring strategic alternatives, including a potential sale, with $1.1 billion in cash.
GEOCXWTRIPbankruptcyprison companiesTripadvisormergers and acquisitions
Sentiment note
Geo Group's stock moved positively on the news of Donald Trump's 2024 election win, as the incoming administration is expected to be more favorable towards the private prison industry.
PositiveInvesting.com• Reuters
Factbox-Stocks to watch as Biden, Trump vie for presidency By Reuters - Investing.com
Investors are closely watching stocks that could be impacted by the outcome of the U.S. presidential elections, especially those more exposed to government policy actions such as banking and clean energy.
AMJBJPMJPMPCJPMPDU.S. presidential electionsgovernment policybankingclean energy
Sentiment note
U.S. prison operators may benefit from Trump's promises of a crackdown on illegal immigration and restrictions on legal immigration.
PositiveInvesting.com• Saqib Iqbal Ahmed And Davide Barbuscia
Analysis - Investors ride the 'Trump trade' as expectations grow for a second term By Reuters - Investing.com Australia
Investors are betting on a second Trump presidency, leading to a rally in stocks that could benefit from his policies, while concerns about higher inflation and fiscal deficits are weighing on the bond market.
Shares have risen 33% since the late June debate, as Trump's promised crackdown on illegal immigration could boost demand for detention centers.
PositiveBenzinga• Chris Katje, Benzinga Staff Writer
Charlie Munger Said Trump Was 'Right' On Having 'Way More Control Over Our Borders': 'They Hate Him So Much That They're Against Him Even When He's Right' - Benzinga
Charlie Munger, the late vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, expressed support for Donald Trump's stance on border control, stating that the former president was 'right' on the need for tighter immigration policies. Munger criticized the partisan divide that prevents rational policy-making on this issue.
The article mentions that prison stocks, including Geo Group, gained after the first presidential debate in the 2024 election, suggesting that the focus on immigration and border control is seen as positive for the industry.
PositiveInvesting.com• Reuters
Factbox-Stocks to watch as Biden and Trump vie for presidency By Reuters - Investing.com
The article discusses the potential impact on various stocks depending on whether Biden or Trump wins the upcoming U.S. presidential election. It covers sectors like financials, solar, clean energy, oil, tariffs, and more.
The article suggests that U.S. prison operators, like Geo Group, could benefit from a crackdown on illegal immigration and restrictions on legal immigration under a second Trump administration.
UnknownZacks Investment Research• Zacks Equity Research
New Strong Sell Stocks for July 1st
ADNT, ARCB and GEO have been added to the Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) List on July 1, 2024.
GEOARCBADNT
UnknownZacks Investment Research• Zacks Equity Research
Geo Group Inc (The) (GEO) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on It
Geo Group (GEO) has received quite a bit of attention from Zacks.com users lately. Therefore, it is wise to be aware of the facts that can impact the stock's prospects.
GEO
UnknownBenzinga• Benzinga Insights
Beyond The Numbers: 6 Analysts Discuss GEO Group Stock
In the latest quarter, 6 analysts provided ratings for GEO Group (NYSE:GEO), showcasing a mix of bullish and bearish perspectives.
The table below provides a snapshot of their recent ratings, showcasing how sentiments have evolved over the past 30 days and comparing them to the preceding months.
Bullish
Somewhat Bullish
Indifferent
Somewhat Bearish
Bearish
Total Ratings
0
6
0
0
0
Last 30D
0
1
0
0
0
1M Ago
0
1
0
0
0
2M Ago
0
2
0
0
0
3M Ago
0
2
0
0
0
Providing deeper insights, analysts have established 12-month price targets, indicating an average target of $16.83, along with a high estimate of $22.00 and a low estimate of $14.00. A decline of 1.0% from the prior average price target is evident in the current average.
Interpreting Analyst Ratings: A Closer Look
The perception of GEO Group by financial experts is analyzed through recent analyst actions. The following summary presents key analysts, their recent evaluations, and adjustments to ratings and price targets.
Analyst
Analyst Firm
Action Taken
Rating
Current Price Target
Prior Price Target
Jay McCanless
Wedbush
Lowers
Outperform
$20.00
$22.00
Jay McCanless
Wedbush
Raises
Outperform
$22.00
$15.00
Jay McCanless
Wedbush
Maintains
Outperform
$15.00
-
Jay McCanless
Wedbush
Maintains
Outperform
$15.00
-
Jay McCanless
Wedbush
Raises
Outperform
$15.00
$14.00
Jay McCanless
Wedbush
Maintains
Outperform
$14.00
-
Key Insights:
Action Taken: Analysts adapt their recommendations to changing market conditions and company performance. Whether they 'Maintain', 'Raise' or 'Lower' their stance, it reflects their response to recent developments related to GEO Group. This information provides a snapshot of how analysts perceive the current state of the company.
Rating: Providing a comprehensive analysis, analysts offer qualitative assessments, ...Full story available on Benzinga.com
GEOAnalyst Ratings
News and sentiment labels describe article tone and are provided for research purposes only. They are not trading recommendations or forecasts.
Trade Ranks App
Trade Ranks, LLC is not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer. All rankings and AI reports are for informational and educational purposes only and are not personalized advice. Investing involves risk. Policy Portal