The S&P 500 gained 9.6% in the first half of 2026, marking the 12th time since 1990 that the index has returned at least 9% in the first six months. Historical data shows that in all 11 previous instances, the S&P 500 posted positive returns in the second half as well, with a median return of 9.8%. Strong earnings growth forecasts (24% in 2026, 17% in 2027) support optimism, though risks from inflation, geopolitics, and potential Fed rate hikes remain.

Lucid Group's stock surged 21% over five trading days despite missing Q2 delivery expectations (3,900 vs. 5,000 units). The rally was driven by investor optimism over new CEO Silvio Napoli's turnaround plan, which includes restructuring the executive team with new CFO, CTO, chief customer officer, and chief transformation officer positions focused on improving efficiency and accountability. Success of the upcoming Gravity SUV will be critical for the company's future.

FactSet announced the limited release of Portfolio Analytics MCP, bringing trusted portfolio analytics into conversational and agentic AI workflows. The tool enables buy-side investment professionals to access governed performance, attribution, and risk insights through natural language queries while maintaining audit-ready outputs and data governance standards.

Salesforce stock has crashed 59% from its late-2024 peak of $369 to $150, despite healthy business growth and a single-digit P/E ratio. Using Elliott Wave analysis, the author suggests the stock is likely to fall further to around $100 before a bullish reversal occurs, as the current decline is part of a larger A-B-C flat correction pattern.

FactSet stock has plummeted 63% from its $500 peak in late 2024 to $185 in February 2026 due to market concerns about AI chatbots replacing financial data services. However, the author argues this sell-off is unjustified, as AI tools require quality data to be useful. Using Elliott Wave analysis, the author suggests the stock may decline further to $170 before becoming attractive, but views it as fundamentally undervalued even at current levels.

Credit Benchmark announced the appointment of Piers MacWhannell as Global Head of Partnerships, a newly created role to support the company's global growth and ecosystem expansion. MacWhannell, with 25 years of financial markets experience, will lead partnership strategy across financial institutions, market infrastructure providers, and technology platforms, including existing partners like Bloomberg and FactSet.

FactSet announced it will release its third quarter fiscal 2026 financial results on July 1, 2026, followed by a conference call at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time. The earnings presentation will be available 30 minutes before the call, with a replay accessible through July 1, 2027.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that economic uncertainty and the Iran conflict threaten to keep inflation elevated, potentially ending the rate-cut cycle investors expected. JPMorgan Chase economists predict the Fed will hold rates steady through 2026 and pivot to rate hikes in Q3 2027. With the S&P 500 trading at a premium valuation of 20.9x forward earnings, investors may flee to safer assets if rate cuts don't materialize.

The S&P 500 experienced a 9% pullback from its all-time high in early 2026 amid geopolitical tensions from the Iran war. Historical analysis suggests that while 10% corrections occur annually, deeper bear markets (20%+) typically require earnings contractions or recessions. With FactSet forecasting 17% earnings growth for both 2026 and 2027, a major crash appears unlikely unless earnings estimates deteriorate significantly.

With the S&P 500 at historically high valuations, the financial sector stands out as a bargain with a P/E ratio of 14 (29th percentile over 10 years). The recent Iran war and potential shift toward rate hikes could benefit banks and insurers. Over 40% of S&P 500 financial stocks have forward P/E ratios below 10, with Wells Fargo and MetLife trading at significant discounts to their five-year averages.

Analysis of 98 years of S&P 500 trading data reveals that Mondays have historically been the worst trading day, with over 51% finishing lower and averaging -0.07% returns. Wednesday shows the highest average returns at 0.06%, while Friday has the highest probability of positive returns at 54.6%. However, the article emphasizes that long-term success depends on time in the market rather than trading on specific days, as all 107 rolling 20-year periods since 1900 generated positive returns.

The S&P 500 faces significant downside risk in 2026 due to Trump's tariffs slowing economic growth, rising oil prices from the U.S.-Iran war, and midterm election uncertainty. With the index trading at elevated valuations and historically showing a 50-50 chance of a 19%+ decline during midterm years, investors should exercise caution and focus on high-conviction stocks at reasonable prices.